KENYA

MITIGATION TARGETS:

30%

(vs. BAU in 2030, conditional on international support)

KEY MITIGATION SECTORS:

Energy

Forestry

COMMITMENT UNDER THE PARIS AGREEMENT:

In its current NDC, Kenya aims to reduce emissions by 30% relative to a BAU scenario of 143 MtCO2e by 2030. Kenya strives to be a newly industrialised middle-income country by 2030, as outlined in its key development strategy “Vision 2030”. This development is expected to increase emissions from all sectors, but considerable emissions growth will come from the electricity sector. The current electricity mix is mainly clean (85% of 2019 system capacity provided by geothermal, hydro, wind and solar) with deliberate efforts by the government towards enhancing clean energy development, in particular geothermal power generation, which has grown very rapidly in recent years. However, Kenya also has domestic fossil fuel resources in the form of coal and oil, and plans are being made to exploit both sources, posing a challenge to its clean development pathway. The relative benefits of Kenya exploiting its large endowment of renewable energy resources versus domestic (and imported) fossil fuels need to be understood and communicated to help build support for low emissions development among key public and private actors.

CLIMATE ACTION TRACKER RATING FOR KENYA:

Kenya’s Paris Agreement target is one of the few that the Climate Action Tracker rates as “2°C compatible”. This rating indicates that Kenya’s current policies are within the range of what is considered to be a fair share of global effort; however, these plans are not yet consistent with the Paris Agreement.

See full assessment

ACTIVITIES UNDER A2A PHASE I:

In Kenya, the A2A project team worked closely with the Climate Change Directorate (CCD) at the Ministry of Environment, and with the climate change focal point at the Ministry of Energy. The first analysis explored the alignment of energy sector planning with the ambition level laid out in the country’s NDC. This analysis has been shared with country partners but has not been made public. Further analyses included an assessment of “The role of renewable energy mini-grids in Kenya’s electricity sector” and “The role of geothermal and coal in Kenya’s electricity sector and implications for sustainable development”.
The A2A team also provided direct support to policy makers and planners in the power sector. In close collaboration with the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA), the A2A team supported the revision of the Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP) to include carbon emission projections, and by providing training to the technical LCPDP team. The Economic Impact Model (EIM-ES) and the Air-Pollution Impact Model (AIRPOLIM-ES) were used to analyse employment and health impacts, respectively, of different LCPDP scenarios. The results were presented and the tools were handed over to Kenyan experts at EPRA. Results of the first project phase were summarised in a sector report called “Climate change and sustainable development in the Kenyan electricity sector – Impacts of electricity sector development on Kenya’s NDC”.

Kenya

PUBLICATIONS

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