EMISSIONS TARGET OF UPDATED NDC (July 2021):
Unconditional target of reducing total GHG emissions by 29% below a BAU scenario, increasing this target to 41% below the BAU scenario conditional on international support.
KEY MITIGATION SECTORS:
COMMITMENT UNDER THE PARIS AGREEMENT AND CURRENT SITUATION:
Under the Updated first NDC, Indonesia aims to reduce emissions by 29% from BAU in 2030 or by 41% conditional on international support. The reduction targets and BAU projections in the 2021 update of the NDC are the same as in the 2016 first NDC. The section on mitigation is relatively small and unspecific, discussing three areas for mitigation activity: reduced emissions from Land-Use Change and Forestry (LUCF); the development of clean energy sources; and improved waste management.
The projected BAU emission level for 2030 is 2.9 Gt CO2e, making Indonesia a crucial actor in the international mitigation challenge. The 2016 data shows that LUCF is the largest source of emissions (with massive yearly variations dependent on peat fires), but energy is expected to surpass it as the largest emitting sector by 2030. The energy mix in the 2021 Updated NDC is (still) based on the 2014 National Energy Strategy and although there are some signs that state-owned utility PLN is considering more renewables, the energy development pathway is still decidedly fossil based. Progress on clean energy development is slow and the chances that the 2025 target of 23% renewables will be met are slim.
Accelerating the clean energy transition will need substantial investments and commitment, but first and foremost a change in mindset. The energy sector narrative will need to move away from heavy reliance on domestic fossil resources (especially coal) towards development driven by renewable energy and increased efficiency. The first cautious signs of a turnaround could be observed at COP26 in Glasgow, in November 2021, where President Joko Widodo and finance minister Sri Mulyani appealed to developed countries for a dialogue about supporting more ambitious climate action.
In order to build broad political support for the clean energy transition, the benefits of accelerated coal phase out and fast uptake of clean energy will need to be thoroughly examined and effectively communicated.
KEY POLICY DOCUMENTS:
- PLN’s 10-year Strategic electricity business plan (RUPTL; PLN, 2021)
- National Electricity Plan (RUKN; ESDM, 2019)
- National Energy Plan (RUEN; ESDM, 2017)
- National Energy Policy (KEN; GoI, 2014)
- First Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC; GoI, 2016)
- Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC; GoI, 2021)
- Long-term strategy for low carbon and climate resilience 2050 (LTS-LCCR; KLHK, 2021)
- Low Carbon Development Indonesia (LCDI; Bappenas, 2019)
- Indonesia Energy Outlook 2019 (IEO; National Energy Council, 2019)
ACTIVITIES UNDER A2A PHASE I (2016-2019):
In Indonesia, the A2A project team worked with the Energy and Mineral Resources Directorate in the Ministry of Development Planning (BAPPENAS). The first analyses dealt with the alignment of domestic energy and power sector targets with the ambition laid out in the first NDC (Power sector NDC-alignment in Indonesia) and with the options for grid integration of variable renewable energy (Grid integration in Indonesia) – both of which have been presented and discussed with the Ministry. Additional analysis conducted at the request of BAPPENAS focused on the link between SDGs and energy sector transformation. The main analysis, which the project carried out in collaboration with the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) and the German Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB), deals with the impacts of scaling up solar PV to support emission reductions. The project’s sector report is called “Three Indonesian solar-powered futures” and provides evidence on the impacts of three solar photovoltaics pathways: 1, 10, and 100 GW by 2030. Rather than looking at the policy implications, the focus is on industrial and employment opportunities and challenges. The analysis is based on the application of the Economic Impact Model (EIM-ES).
ACTIVITIES UNDER A2A PHASE II (2020-2022):
The start of the second phase of A2A coincided with the first wave(s) of COVID-19 restrictions and government response measures across the globe, as well as an increased international call to reconsider coal power generation and use recovery resources to ‘build back better’. With this in mind, BAPPENAS requested the A2A work in the period 2020-2022 to focus on two parts: 1) an analysis of COVID-19 energy sector effects and responses, with implications for the Indonesian context, and 2) an analysis of the Indonesian government plan to replace 3.4GW of coal units at Suralaya with new grid-connected solar PV capacity in the Java-Bali grid, with special attention to potential impacts across development indicators (SDGs), identification of barriers and enablers, and suggestions on steps that different stakeholders could take to contribute to an inclusive push for the clean energy transition (slide deck and policy brief).