INDONESIA

MITIGATION TARGETS:

29%

(vs. BAU in 2030, unconditional target)

41%

(vs. BAU in 2030, conditional on international support)

KEY MITIGATION SECTORS:

Energy

Waste Management

LULUCF

COMMITMENT UNDER THE PARIS AGREEMENT:

Under the current NDC, Indonesia aims to reduce emissions by 29% from BAU in 2030 or by 41% conditional on international support. The NDC highlights three key areas for mitigation activity: reduced emissions from Land-use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF); the development of clean energy sources; and improved waste management. The projected BAU emission level for 2030 is 2.9 Gt CO2e, making Indonesia a crucial actor in the international mitigation challenge. LULUCF is currently the largest source of emissions, but energy is expected to surpass it as the largest emitting sector by 2030, and the current power sector development plans show a large role for coal-based generation, driving continued emission growth. Increasing the role of clean energy is thus extremely important from a mitigation perspective and has been established as a national policy objective, with at least a 23% share from renewable sources mandated in 2025. With domestic coal resources, a strong pro-coal lobby, and rapidly growing energy demand, the benefits of low carbon development pathways need to be effectively communicated.

CLIMATE ACTION TRACKER RATING FOR INDONESIA:

Indonesia is one of the most populous countries in the world, with substantial emissions from forestry, increasing emissions in all sectors, and a massive coal-fired power generation pipeline; it is also highly vulnerable to climate change. Indonesia’s 2030 NDC target is rated as “Highly Insufficient”; however, its current policy projections, if rated, are better (“Insufficient” and show modest signs of improvement).

See full assessment

KEY POLICY DOCUMENTS:

ACTIVITIES UNDER A2A PHASE I:

In Indonesia, the A2A project team worked with the Energy and Mineral Resources Directorate in the Ministry of Development Planning (Bappenas). The first analyses dealt with the alignment of domestic energy and power sector targets with the ambition laid out in the first NDC (Power sector NDC-alignment in Indonesia) and with the options for grid integration of variable renewable energy (Grid integration in Indonesia) – both of which have been presented and discussed with the Ministry. Additional analysis conducted at the request of Bappenas focused on the link between SDGs and energy sector transformation. The main analysis, which the project carried out in collaboration with the Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI) and the German Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB), deals with the impacts of scaling up solar PV to support emission reductions. The project’s sector report is called “Three Indonesian solar-powered futures” and provides evidence on the impacts of three solar photovoltaics pathways: 1, 10, and 100 GW by 2030. Rather than looking at the policy implications, the focus is on industrial and employment opportunities and challenges. The analysis is based on the application of the Economic Impact Model (EIM-ES).

Indonesia

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