Under the current NDC, Indonesia aims to reduce emissions by 29% from BAU in 2030 or by 41% conditional on international support. The NDC highlights three key areas for mitigation activity: reduced emissions from Land-use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF); the development of clean energy sources; and improved waste management. The projected BAU emission level for 2030 is 2.9 Gt CO2e, making Indonesia a crucial actor in the international mitigation challenge. LULUCF is currently the largest source of emissions, but energy is expected to surpass it as the largest emitting sector by 2030, and the current power sector development plans show a large role for coal-based generation, driving continued emission growth. Increasing the role of clean energy is thus extremely important from a mitigation perspective and has been established as a national policy objective, with at least a 23% share from renewable sources mandated in 2025. With domestic coal resources, a strong pro-coal lobby, and rapidly growing energy demand, the benefits of low carbon development pathways need to be effectively communicated.
Indonesia is one of the most populous countries in the world, with substantial emissions from forestry, increasing emissions in all sectors, and a massive coal-fired power generation pipeline; it is also highly vulnerable to climate change. Indonesia’s 2030 NDC target is rated as “Highly Insufficient”; however, its current policy projections, if rated, are better (“Insufficient” and show modest signs of improvement).