Towards a better understanding of NDC ambition – lessons from political economy analysis in development support
This working paper discusses political economy analysis (PEA), a structured approach to analysing sector politics which has been used and studied especially in the realm of development support. We investigate whether looking at sector transitions through a PEA-lens will allow us to see which political factors are at play when determining ambitious climate policy. Understanding how these political dynamics determine which outcomes are feasible and which are not, will contribute towards a better understanding of NDC ambition.
Fitness framework for assessing NDC ambition – analysing the likelihood that ambition will lead to action
The Fitness Framework presented here is a tool with the potential to add value over existing approaches to assessing climate ambition and action, by explicitly taking stakeholders and their behaviour into account, and building on that to explain why change is more or less likely to happen (this likelihood is what we call ‘fitness’). It aims to provide a structure for analysing the political economy of ambition raising, using concepts familiar to climate and development experts. This is a work in progress.
A roadmap for the power supply sector in Argentina – Implications of ambitious climate action for policy and investment
The “Ambition to Action” (A2A) project provided support to the Argentinian NDC process between March 2017 and December 2019. This report provides a synthesis of the results of three years of supporting governmental and non-governmental constituencies with analytical support for the energy supply sector. At the core of the work were three strands. 1) Scenario analysis to support the understanding of the implication of the long term temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. 2) Analysis of socio-economic impacts of the energy transition, especially regarding employment and industrial development. And 3) a framework to help better understand the technical challenges of the energy transition in the power sector.
Co-benefits on the interface between energy security and ambitious climate policy
This paper takes a closer look at energy security and how it relates to ambitious climate policy. It aims to help the reader think more clearly about energy security as a co-benefit in the context of increasing climate ambition. To structure energy security topics for those involved in NDC planning and implementation, we present 10 themes on the interface between energy security and ambitious climate policy, as a starting point for identifying co-benefits, NDC support, and choosing the ‘highest possible ambition’ for NDC updates.
Climate change and sustainable development in the Kenyan electricity sector – Impacts of electricity sector development on Kenya’s NDC
The objective of this report is to synthesize the analysis and results from analytical and capacity support activities undertaken as part of the “Ambition to Action” (A2A) project in Kenya between March 2017 and December 2019. The insights aim to inform policy planning in the Kenyan electricity sector and to feed into the discussions around more ambitious climate targets for successive NDCs, aligned with the country’s sustainable development agenda, and the long-term strategy.
Assessing sustainable development impacts of scaling-up climate action in the electricity sector – Lessons learnt from country processes
Based on experiences in several countries, this paper formulates six key lessons learnt for the assessment of sustainable development impacts and their integration into climate policy making. The lessons focus on technical as well as political aspects and include recommendations for future work in this area to support ambition raising and sustainable development through robust evidence.
Three Indonesian solar-powered futures
This report takes a closer look at solar photovoltaic (PV) as a clean alternative to coal-powered electricity supply for Indonesia. We establish a sense of direction and scale of the impacts of solar PV deployment on energy security, emissions, employment, air pollution, and SDGs. With analyses such as this one we hope to inform and inspire support for energy and climate policy that truly reflects Indonesia’s ‘highest possible ambition’ towards achieving prosperity and fighting climate change.
NDC Update Report, Nov. 2019
The NDC Update Report tracks the progress on the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement. The theme of this report is the role of long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LTSs) in achieving the Paris Agreement goal. This report argues for the importance of developing long-term (sector) strategies to determine the highest possible ambition for the coming NDC update (until 2030) and to signal a clear path for future NDC ambition raising (towards net-zero in 2050). Governments can use the NDC update to signal that indeed the highest possible ambition needs to lead to decarbonisation by 2050 or shortly thereafter.
Domestic expenditure and employment impacts of power sector development in Thailand
This paper presents the results of a modelling assessment to estimate the expenditure, investment and employment impacts of three different power sector development scenarios for Thailand, using the EIM-ES model created by the A2A project.
The role of renewable energy mini-grids in Kenya’s electricity sector
This report synthesises available analyses on the role and potential of mini-grids in Kenya and explores how this technology can help the country attain its goal of universal electrification by 2022, and also contribute to the achievement of other related development objectives. The synthesis aims to provide policy makers with the required evidence and justification for elevating the position of off-grid solutions in electricity sector development and planning and the political agenda.
The role of geothermal and coal in Kenya’s electricity sector
This study aims at supporting decision making in the electricity sector by comparing the two main power generation technologies that are considered baseload electricity supply options in Kenya, namely geothermal and coal, and the impact of developing these technologies on generation costs, affordability of electricity, and overall flexibility and reliability of electricity supply. In addition, the report quantifies the impact that geothermal and coal-based power generation has on employment creation, health and climate change.
AIRPOLIM-ES (Air Pollution Impact Model for Electricity Supply)
The AIRPOLIM-ES is an accessible, Excel-based tool that estimates the health impacts of air pollution from different sources of electricity generation and other fuel combustion that can be applied in multiple countries. The first version of the model focuses on air pollution caused by electricity generation from coal- and gas-fired power plants. It calculates the impacts on mortality (premature deaths and years of life lost) from four adulthood diseases: lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, ischemic heart disease and stroke, all of whose prevalence is increased with the intake of pollution. The tool can be used to compare the magnitude of health impacts under different scenarios across both existing and planned plants.
EIM-ES (Economic Impact Model for Electricity Supply)
The EIM-ES is a transparent, Excel-based tool that estimates the domestic employment impacts of investments in the electricity supply sector within a country to aid policy decision makers. The model covers all relevant electricity generation technologies – both low carbon and fossil fuel-based plants – in order to provide an assessment of employment creation under different future pathways for the development of the electricity sector. It also provides information on wider economic indicators such as investment requirements, economic value added and trade. The tool has been used to compare the magnitude of employment and other economic impacts under a range of scenarios in Argentina and South Africa with analysis ongoing in a number of additional countries (Kenya, Indonesia, Thailand, Mongolia).
Transformation towards a decarbonised electricity sector – a framework of analysis for power system transformation
This paper develops a qualitative assessment framework that allows policy makers to understand the complexity of power sector transformation and to analyse their country’s position in the transformation process, including key challenges impacting the integration of vRES and examples for technically feasible solutions.
When the stars align: investigating the influence of the co-benefits narrative on climate policy ambition
This research paper explores how evidence on co-benefits has positively influenced climate policy ambition, through three case studies, a review of academic literature, and interviews with experts.
A ten point agenda for delivering higher mitigation ambition
The paper formulates 10 points for mitigation ambition and includes recommendations on ways to support ambition raising through international cooperation.
NDC Update Report June 2019
The NDC Update Report tracks the progress on the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement. The theme of this special edition is “sector decarbonisation pathways”. To reach the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, most countries will need to reduce emissions to net-zero in 2050 or shortly thereafter. We consider this challenge from a sector perspective, examining decarbonisation from several different angles.
Scoping study Industrial development in Thailand: Renewable energy sector
This Scoping Study presents an overview of the renewable energy sector in Thailand to inform our project’s work on industrial development potential, including an initial assessment of local activity along key value chains and mapping of stakeholders and policies.
Grid integration of variable renewables in Indonesia
This policy brief presents a number of considerations for Indonesia related to integrating variable renewables into a power grid, looks at how these relate to the local energy context, and offers direction to prepare for future integration of significant levels of solar and wind energy in emerging power grids.
NDC Update Report Nov 2018
The NDC Update Report tracks the progress on the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement. The theme of this edition is “Ambition”: We look ahead and explore whether governments are ready for the next round of pledges and where support and preparation could focus.
Power sector NDC-alignment in Indonesia
This report looks at the alignment of current and planned developments in the Indonesian power sector and how these relate to the Indonesia’s first NDC
SCAN-tool: linking climate action and sustainable development goals
The SDG Climate Action Nexus tool (SCAN-tool) is designed to provide high-level guidance on how mitigation actions can impact achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Power sector NDC-alignment in Argentina
This report looks at the alignment of current and planned developments in the power sector in Argentina and how these relate to the Argentina’s first NDC
NDC Update Report May 2018
In this special edition of the NDC Update Report, we focus on the relationship between Nationally Deter-mined Contributions (NDCs) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and explore how climate and development actions can support each other.
Grid integration of variable renewables in Argentina
Integration of high shares of renewables is an important consideration for decarbonisation of the power sector. A2A organised a workshop with stakeholders on the integration of renewable energy technologies into the Argentinean electricity system.
Paris-compatibility of Argentina’s energy pathways
This report discusses the Paris-compatibility of Argentina’s energy pathways developed under the Plataforma Escenarios Energéticos Argentina 2040 initiative.
NDC Update Report Nov 2017
The NDC Update Report tracks the progress on the implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement. The theme of this edition is “Progress”: we critically analyse perceptions on the NDC implementation progress among national and sector experts involved in NDC processes in emerging and developing countries.
NDC Update Report May 2017
This report is the prologue to a series of update reports on NDC-related topics. It critically looks at recent developments around NDC implementation and presents the findings of a survey carried out among government representatives and practitioners working on NDC implementation.