Towards a better understanding of NDC ambition – lessons from political economy analysis in development support

This working paper discusses political economy analysis (PEA), a structured approach to analysing sector politics which has been used and studied especially in the realm of development support. We investigate whether looking at sector transitions through a PEA-lens will allow us to see which political factors are at play when determining ambitious climate policy. Understanding how these political dynamics determine which outcomes are feasible and which are not, will contribute towards a better understanding of NDC ambition.

Fitness framework for assessing NDC ambition – analysing the likelihood that ambition will lead to action

The Fitness Framework presented here is a tool with the potential to add value over existing approaches to assessing climate ambition and action, by explicitly taking stakeholders and their behaviour into account, and building on that to explain why change is more or less likely to happen (this likelihood is what we call ‘fitness’). It aims to provide a structure for analysing the political economy of ambition raising, using concepts familiar to climate and development experts. This is a work in progress.

A roadmap for the power supply sector in Argentina – Implications of ambitious climate action for policy and investment

The “Ambition to Action” (A2A) project provided support to the Argentinian NDC process between March 2017 and December 2019. This report provides a synthesis of the results of three years of supporting governmental and non-governmental constituencies with analytical support for the energy supply sector. At the core of the work were three strands. 1) Scenario analysis to support the understanding of the implication of the long term temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. 2) Analysis of socio-economic impacts of the energy transition, especially regarding employment and industrial development. And 3) a framework to help better understand the technical challenges of the energy transition in the power sector.